COVID cases may decline steeply by end of May: IIT scientists

The ongoing second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may peak between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh total ‘active’ cases and decline steeply by the end of May, according to a mathematical module devised by Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) scientists.

“We have found that there is a reasonable chance that the active cases in India could peak sometime between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh cases. It is a sharp slope, but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by end of May may see a dramatic reduction,” Manindra Agrawal, professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur told news agency PTI.

The scientists in the as yet unpublished study said there are several novel features in the SUTRA model, PTI reported. Whereas previous papers divided the patient population into asymptomatic and Infected, the new model also accounts for the fact that some fraction of asymptomatic patients could also be detected due to contact tracing and other such protocols.

India recorded over 3 lakh new coronavirus infections for the second straight day on Friday, clocking 3,32,730 cases in the last 24 hours, the Union Health Ministry said. With this, India’s trend of registering the world’s highest daily tally continues, pushing the country’s total count to 16,263,695 cases.

As many as 2,263 people also died of coronavirus in the last 24 hours, mounting the death toll to 186,920.