Saturday, April 13, 2024

200 Seats for NDA, 197 for UPA, Independent Analyst Projects

2019 poll prediction

Political analyst Bishal Paul, based on independent research, predicted the election result to be a much closer fight despite of the exit polls who gave Narendra Modi led NDA a thumping majority in the 2019 elections.

According to Paul’s analysis, the BJP will win only 169 seats, and the total tally of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will stand at 200. Compared to this, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is not far behind. Paul projects the UPA to win 197 seats, with the Congress party winning 145 seats on its own, up 101 from the 44 seats it won in 2014.

Paul also explained the mixed methodology he used for the analysis.

Regarding the margin on error, he wrote, “I’m keeping a range of +/- 20-25 seats between the final tally of both UPA as well as NDA.”

Here are some of the projections for key states:

Uttar Pradesh: SP-BSP-RLD 42, BJP 32, Congress 5, Others 1

Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 14, TDP 11

Tamil Nadu: UPA 33, NDA 5, Others 1

West Bengal: TMC 32, Left 1, BJP 5, Congress 4

Maharashtra:  NDA 26, UPA 22

Haryana: NDA 5, UPA 4, Others 1

Punjab: NDA 2, UPA 10, Others 1

Rajasthan: BJP 15, Congress 10

Assam: NDA 7, UPA 5, Others 2

Bihar: NDA 24, UPA 16

Karnataka: NDA 15, UPA 13

Odisha: NDA 4, Congress 2, BJP 15

Telangana: TRS 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, BJP 0

Gujarat: BJP 20, Congress 6


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